HCP: Moroccan Growth Held at 4.1% in the Third Quarter, Expected at 4.7% by Year End

14/10/2026

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he High Commission for Planning estimates, in its latest economic outlook note, that the national economy grew by 4.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, despite the lingering energy shock.

A huge red and white excavator with a lattice boom stands on ocher ground under a blue sky. — A dragline at the Benguerir phosphate mine, operated by OCP. Photo: Solox44, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Agriculture was its main driver, up 19.9%, and services advanced by 3.9%, while secondary activities fell a further 1.9%.

Exports gained only 6.2% in volume, bringing the contribution of foreign trade to growth to -1.2 points.

For the last three months of the year, the institution expects growth to accelerate to 4.7%, carried by household consumption up 4.3% and investment up 6.8%.

The scenario still hangs on the price of energy: a new escalation in the Middle East would revive inflationary pressure, whereas a fall in oil prices would lift growth to around 5.3%.

Photo: AyourAchtouk, CC BY-SA 4.0.

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