ade public in mid-July, the exploratory economic budget of the High Commission for Planning sets expected national growth at 4.8% in 2026, before a slowdown to 3% in 2027.
The gap owes almost everything to the land: agricultural value added would leap 19.1% this year, then shed 6.8% next year through base effect alone, the institution assuming an average cereal harvest.
Outside agriculture the movement runs the other way: 3% in 2026 after 3.9% in 2025, then a recovery to 4% in 2027, pulled by industry and services.
The budget deficit would ease from 3.5% of GDP in 2025 to 3.4% in 2026, then 3.2% in 2027. The document underpins the trade-offs of the 2027 Finance Law, which the government would prepare in the autumn.
Photo: Raoul Rives, CC BY-SA 4.0.
Haut-Commissariat au Plan - Budget économique exploratoire 2027
